98th Academy Awards

Oscars season is upon us once again, and if you're interested in seeing some predictions, you've come to the right place. Last year, I saw pretty much everything nominated for a big award, plus all the short films. Well this year I saw EVERY SINGLE MOVIE NOMINATED IN EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY. That's right! Exactly fifty movies were nominated (fifteen of which were short films) in 24 categories (125 nominations total) and I saw them all.

Even the people voting for the awards don't watch all the movies. That's true. The Academy just added a new rule in April 2025 saying that voters must watch all the films in their category, and people still aren't going to do it. It's based on the honour system because the Academy is known to be filled with trustworthy people.

To be honest, I understand why voters wouldn't want to watch all the films. Or I would if they had to put as much effort into it as I did. But they don't. Academy voters can watch all the films for free through an online portal. For me to see all these movies, I had to spend probably over $200 (not including popcorn or streaming service subscriptions), drive to a bunch of far away movie theatres, and at one point go to a different country because an Italian documentary that's nominated for Best Original Song was not available anywhere in Canada (I was going to California anyway, so it worked out). Seeing every movie was a project that took months. I managed to watch all Best Picture films before the nominations even came out by making educated guesses. There was so much research that went into this whole thing, and it took quite a lot of dedication, especially for the less popular films like some of the documentaries and international features that were hard to track down. I am really proud of myself!

Okay, I admit, watching 50 movies is a ridiculous expectation for people with jobs even if the films don't cost money. But, if there's a category someone hasn't seen all the movies in, they can choose to do a very simple thing: abstain from voting. Most of the categories are made up of the same ten nominated movies that you have a couple months to watch... at home, for free. Or if you want to vote but don't have time, pick a short film category so you can still feel involved. The animated shorts presentation was so brief they added one of the movies that only made the shortlist to drag it out longer.

Also, side note: the theme of the Oscars movies this year was literally missing a leg. Here is a list of this year's nominated movies that featured a character with an amputated leg (spoilers in this paragraph): It Was Just An Accident, Song Sung Blue, and Kokuho. Sirāt had a character that was missing a leg, although it wasn't important to the plot, while The Secret Agent has a chopped off leg bouncing around on its own, committing hate crimes. Frankenstein had a monster made up of a mismatch of chopped up body parts, while in The Ugly Stepsister has Elvira cutting off all her toes. Interestingly, everyone keeps their legs in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You... although I guess A$AP Rocky does break one of his.

Before I go into details about my predictions, I want to say that (with the exception of Hamnet) I have only seen these movies once, and the viewing could have taken place anywhere between April 2025 and March 2026. This is important because a lot of these films are not fresh in my mind, and I've probably forgotten a lot of the finer details such as sound or special effects or whatever.

Anyway, enough of my kvetching. Here are my thoughts and predictions for the 98th Academy Awards (now updated with the winners):

Directing

Who I Think Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Who Should Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Who I Would Choose: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident (not nominated)

My Personal Favourite: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Actor in a Leading Role

Who I Think Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Who Should Win: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Who I Would Choose: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (not nominated)

My Personal Favourite: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (not nominated)

Additional Thoughts: Best Actor was possibly the most competitive category this year, with a lot of powerhouses nominated. That being said, most of the individual performances were not overly memorable to me. We all know Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio can act, but nothing stood out about these roles. Ethan Hawke's performance in Blue Moon was exactly that: a performance. When watching Sinners, Marty Supreme, or One Battle After Another, I felt like I was watching these famous actors put on great performances, but Hawke's character work was so truly impressive, he completely disappeared into the role. That being said, I though Joel Edgerton did a fantastic job carrying the emotional depth of Train Dreams, and I would have given the Oscar to him if he was nominated... and if that was something I had the power to do. I also think Jesse Plemons had a better performance than anyone nominated.

Winner: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Actress in a Leading Role

Who I Think Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Who Should Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Who I Would Choose: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

My Personal Favourite: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Additional Thoughts: I feel like Best Actress is usually the category with some of the strongest competition, but this year it was always clear who it would be going to. No one else stood a chance.

Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Actress in a Supporting Role

Who I Think Will Win: Teyanna Taylor, One Battle After Another

Who Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Who I Would Choose: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (not nominated)

My Personal Favourite: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (not nominated)

Additional Thoughts: Most of the nominations in this category make very little sense to me. I think pretty much every performance nominated was fairly forgettable, with the exception of Amy Madigan in Weapons, but I still didn't find it impressive, as much as it was creepy. In fact, I find that nomination to be the most bullshit out of all of these, as the role was not challenging, and it felt that any gifted actor in a high school theatre production could have pulled off the exact same performance. As for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, I felt that her performance was the only one with real depth. It's not that the other nominees did a bad job, it's just that the roles they played were not overly complex. As for Ariana Grande, her performance as Glinda was the highlight of Wicked: For Good. While I didn't think the movie was that great, Grande's performance was so nuanced, and brought a profoundness the film seemed to be missing in most other places.

Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Actor in a Supporting Role

Who I Think Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Who Should Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Who I Would Choose: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Animated Feature Film

What I Think Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

What Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters

What I Would Choose: KPop Demon Hunters

My Personal Favourite: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Additional Thoughts: KPop Demon Hunters was a phenomenon, and it was so refreshing to see a mega animated movie not be a sequel! What's that? A sequel has already been announced? Well, great, there goes that.

Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

Casting

Who I Think Will Win: Francine Maisler, Sinners

Who I Would Choose: Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme

Additional Thoughts: I wish I knew enough about this category to tell you my deeper thoughts. I would love to learn more about how casting works. I think being a casting agent would be really fun because a lot of the time it would be really repetitive, but once in a while you would see someone so tremendously awful it would make the whole thing worth it.

Winner: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

Cinematrography

Who I Think Will Win: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

Who Should Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

Who I Would Choose: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

My Personal Favourite: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

Additional Thoughts: The dance scene in Sinners was one of the best things I've ever seen on camera.

Winner: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

Costume Design

Who I Think Will Win: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

Who I Would Choose: Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good (not nominated)

My Personal Favourite: Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good (not nominated)

Additional Thoughts: I can't claim to know a lot about what makes a good costume when you're awarding for things other than extravagance, but what I do know is that the dress Glinda wore for the majority of Wicked: For Good deserves an Oscar.

Winner: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

Documentary Feature

What I Think Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor

What Should Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

What I Would Choose: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

My Personal Favourite: The Alabama Solution

Additional Thoughts: The Perfect Neighbor is genuinely one of the worst documentaries I've ever seen. It's entirely found footage with no narration. In theory, it's about stand-your-ground law, as it follows the sequence of events in the murder of Ajike Owens in Florida. Yes, the film is sad and frustrating as you watch Owens' young children deal with the unjust death of their mother. There are a few issues though, mainly that the documentary suggests the murder was premeditated. Stand-your-ground is a racist law that lets murderers get off scot-free by claiming it was self-defence because they felt unsafe and made a snap decision. So not only do they suggest the perpetrator planned a murder, she gets charged with manslaughter and put in jail for twenty-five years. That's not a good example of the major issues with stand-your-ground. Aside from that, the documentary is also really boring.

All the other documentaries nominated this year were really interesting. If you like documentaries, I'd highly recommend Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Alabama Solution, and Cutting Through Rocks. Mr. Nobody Against Putin is a fascinating look at the Russian school system during the war with Ukraine. The Alabama Solution is what I found to be the most upsetting of the documentaries, taking you inside the corrupt prison system in Alabama. There is a lot of systemic abuse, murder, and the dumbest, most evil politicians on the planet. Cutting Through Rocks follows Sara Shahverdi, the first woman to be elected to the council in her Iranian village. She is a true inspiration, fighting against one of the world's worst patriarchies, and being exactly what you'd want a politician to be. Also, every single man in this movie is literally evil.

Winner: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Film Editing

Who I Think Will Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

Who Should Win: Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

Who I Would Choose: Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

Additional Thoughts: I chose Sinners because it was the only one of the nominated movies where I don't remember actively thinking, "Oh my God, this is taking so long!"

Winner: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

International Feature Film

What I Think Will Win: Sentimental Value

What Should Win: It Was Just an Accident

What I Would Choose: It Was Just an Accident

My Personal Favourite: It Was Just an Accident

Winner: Sentimental Value

Makeup and Hairstyling

Who I Think Will Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey, Frankenstein

Who Should Win: Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho

Who I Would Choose: Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister

My Personal Favourite: Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister

Additional Thoughts: Kokuho was a beautiful, yet boring movie with some great wigs. The Ugly Stepsister was actually one of my favourite movies nominated in any category this year, and I thought the body horror was really well done. It's not the best film of the year from a technical aspect, but I found it to be the one that was most up my alley plot-wise. It's a cool take on Cinderella.

Winner: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey, Frankenstein

Music (Original Score)

Who I Think Will Win: Ludwig Goransson, Sinners

Who Should Win: Ludwig Goransson, Sinners

Who I Would Choose: Ludwig Goransson, Sinners

Winner: Ludwig Goransson, Sinners

Music (Original Song)

What I Think Will Win: "Golden," KPop Demon Hunters

What Should Win: "I Lied to You," Sinners

What I Would Choose: "Golden," KPop Demon Hunters

Additional Thoughts: I'm excited to see Diane Warren lose another Oscar!

Winner: "Golden," KPop Demon Hunters

Production Design

Who I Think Will Win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

Who Should Win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

Who I Would Choose: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

My Personal Favourite: Sam Bader, The Testament of Ann Lee (not nominated)

Winner: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

Sound

Who I Think Will Win: Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta, F1

Additional Thoughts: I have no idea what this category means

Winner: Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta, F1

Visual Effects

Who I Think Will Win: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Who I Would Choose: Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus

Winner: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who I Think Will Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Who Should Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Who I Would Choose: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Additional Thoughts: Even though writing is my "thing," I really didn't have a favourite original screenplay this year.

Winner: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who I Think Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Who I Would Choose: Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet

My Personal Favourite: Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Animated Short Film

What I Think Will Win: Butterfly

What Should Win: Butterfly

What I Would Choose: Butterfly

My Personal Favourite: Butterfly

Winner: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Live Action Short Film

What I Think Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva

My Personal Favourite: A Friend of Dorothy

Additional Thoughts: The live action shorts didn't feel very strong at all this year.

Winners: Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers

Documentary Short Film

What I Think Will Win: All the Empty Rooms

What Should Win: The Devil is Busy

What I Would Choose: The Devil is Busy

My Personal Favourite: The Devil is Busy

Additional Thoughts: Perfectly a Strangeness was the worst thing nominated for an Oscar this year. It would be fine as a YouTube video you were meant to fall asleep to, but calling it a documentary is ridiculous. It's only fifteen minutes long, but it felt like it was pushing forty-five. The short follows three donkeys walking around some giant telescopes in Chile, and that's literally it. It has no narrative.

Winner:  All the Empty Rooms

Best Picture

What I Think Will Win: One Battle After Another

What Should Win: Sinners

What I Would Choose: It Was Just an Accident (not nominated)

My Personal Favourite: Hamnet

Additional Thoughts: It Was Just an Accident should have been nominated and won Best Picture. The film follows a group of former political prisoners in Iran as they debate how to seek justice against the guard who may have been their primary abuser. While I generally believe that the only thing that should be considered for an award is the quality of the film itself (I hate when actors given awards posthumously that they probably wouldn't have won when they were alive), I believe the type of filmmaking displayed by Jafar Panahi and everyone else involved in this production deserves to be awarded for their bravery with Hollywood's most prestigious accolade. It Was Just an Accident was filmed in secret in Iran. Risking everything in order to tell a story is so courageous, and is a reminder of the important impact movies can have. In a world of AI, it's a celebration of something deeply human.

Winner: One Battle After Another

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So that's it for this year. I doubt I will ever watch all the movies again. It was way too much work, and way too expensive. Here's the spreadsheet I used to keep track of it all:

Happy Oscars, everyone!